HCSS: Russia's Unsustainable Business Model

Door Anoniem dd.

In januari publiceerde The Hague Centre for Security Studies een interessante achtergrondstudie getiteld "Russia's Unsustainable Business Model: Going All In on Oil and Gas."

De afhankelijkheid van Rusland van inkomsten uit de olie- en gasproductie is nu groter dan die van de Sovjet-Unie in de jaren tachtig – in het afgelopen decennium waren zij goed voor 40 tot 50% van de Russische federale begroting en ongeveer tweederde van de Russische export. Dit terwijl de vooruitzichten voor fossiele brandstoffen de laatste jaren sterk zijn verslechterd.

Amerikaanse schalieolie zorgt voor een neerwaartse druk op de olieprijzen en de steeds grotere vastberadenheid om de klimaatverandering actief te bestrijden zal naar verwachting resulteren in een verminderde vraag naar olie. Bovendien wordt het een steeds grotere uitdaging om de olieproductie van Rusland op het huidige peil te handhaven. Hoewel de Russische gasreserves overvloedig zijn, wordt het steeds moeilijker om er geld mee te verdienen, deels omdat vloeibaar aardgas (LNG) de dominante manier is geworden om gas over lange afstanden te vervoeren.

Genoeg reden om de houdbaarheid van het Russische olie- en gasbeleid ter discussie te stellen. Hoe gaat de Russische olie- en gasindustrie, en het Poetin-regime in het algemeen, om met deze uitdagingen en wat zijn de vooruitzichten?

Het rapport, opgesteld door Jilles van den Beukel en Lucia van Geuns, vindt u via de onderstaande link:

https://hcss.nl/sites/default/files/files/reports/Russias%20Unsustainable%20Business%20Model.pdf.

 

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